The Problem with Los Altos

When Greg Newgard completed the purchase for a franchise in the BDBL in 2003, Newgard wondered what sort of rivalries might emerge after joining the Higuera Division. But in 2004, franchise moved from Houston to Silicon Valley and a ‘radical realignment’ plan allowed Newgard to see his franchise switch leagues and join the Griffin Division.

Since that day, not so much a rivalry but more of a David and Goliath relationship formed, pre-stone, with the Los Altos Undertakers. The now Outlaw franchise has gone an abysmal 65-147 in their 57 matchups with Los Altos.

“Teams have ups and downs,” Newgard said while sitting in his office. “We’ve had our share of downs when we joined the league, but we’ve had a bunch of ups since then. But one constant obstacle remains: the Undertakers.”

Jeff Paulson was seated in his luxurious owners office surrounded by his four BDBL trophies. When he thought back to Flagstaff joining the league and then moving out to Northern California, the handsome owner didn’t mince any words.

“When Flagstaff moved their team to Silicon Valley, that really brought out the rage in us,” Paulson said. “How dare they try to win some Bay Area fans away from Los Altos! I noticed the team did not last very long here!”

The franchise spent three seasons as neighbors to Paulson’s Undertakers, before moving back to Texas. During the stay there, Flagstaff managed to win one season series in ‘04, going 9-7 including their franchise’s only sweep of the Undertakers that season. They managed to win only two series there, but also split three of the 12 they played. Given the Undertakers won two division titles in those three season, it’s fair to say there were the better team over that period, despite Silicon Valley taking a Wild Card berth in ‘05. Since leaving, Flagstaff has only managed to win two additional series in 11 seasons, including a span of 30 series in a row where they could not manage better than a split.

“Anytime you see an opponent beat you 70% of the time, the stats are pretty bleak no matter how you slice it,” Newgard lamented. “Four series wins, one sweep, in 56 tries. It almost defies the laws of statistics.”

In the 56 division matchups since that last BDBL realignment, the now Flagstaff Outlaws have managed to won those four series with the one sweep, they split 16 times. That leaves 36 series losses including 12 times being swept.

“That’s pretty lopsided,” Newgard agreed.

Any BDBL series has 16 possible outcomes that boil down into five categories between sweeps with way, a split, and the 3-1 series win/loss. Think about flipping a fair coin four times and the probability of a sweep either way is just a tad over 6%. In 56 tries, that would would be 3.5 sweeps for both teams. So a 12-1 split is pretty stark.

But playing Los Altos is more like flipping a trick coin. They lead the league in all-times wins. They’ve won at a 61% clip. Flagstaff has been more or less a .500 team since taking over their franchise. So how does a team with a 60% winning percentage beats a 50/50 team 70% of the time?

“Each team has a 25 man roster, but I like having 28 or so very useful players who I can promote and farm depending upon the matchups,” Paulson said. “I never try to plan for just one team, the goal every year I am going for it is to have a well balanced team. But I always look for matchups I can possibly exploit.”

Going into the 2018 season, the Outlaws are a team that appears to be on top of the pile while the Undertakers are finally rebuilding after a three-year run that saw them win an amazing average of 120 games over that period, including three titles. The Outlaws can’t make up the 82 games it would take them to just get back to .500, but the question is can they start making a dent in it.